IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON UNEMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Economists overtime have attributed population explosion as one of the chief causes of unemployment in developing economies. This study examines the impact of population growth on unemployment rate in Nigeria between 1990 - 2017. The study adopted the econometric techniques of regression analysis of data. The results revealed that population growth rate has an impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. It was also found that a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between population growth and unemployment. Furthermore, the regression result showed that population growth rate, total population and per capita income significantly and positively contributed to unemployment situation in Nigeria within the period estimated. The study later proffered various policies options that the Nigeria government should ensure that Nigeria’s rising population are channeled into areas of the economy growth, which the government can implement to address the issue of unemployment, curb high population growth rate and achieve higher living standards for its populace. 

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1   Background to the Study

Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and the 8th in the world with an estimated figure of about 200 million people based on the facts released by the National Population Commission NPC, (2012). In addition to this, the nation boasts of being the largest economy in Africa as the GDP figure for 2013 and 2014 stood at N13, 526.25 and N14, 475.38 billion respectively, Economic Watch, (2015).  Despite these magnificent feats, the country is still faced with several developmental, economic and political challenges such as unemployment, poverty, corruption, income inequality, population explosion and political instability.

Nigeria has a growing population, which can equally be referred to as increasing population. The census conducted in Nigeria in 1991 put Nigeria’s population at 88.9 million people with growth rate of about 3% and the total fertility rate as disclosed by the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) at about 6%. From the statistics obtained at the 2006 Nigerian population census, Nigeria’s population stood at 140,003, 542 NBS, (2009).  The growth rate then was less than 3% and the population has the tendency of doubling itself in less than 23 years Odusina, (2013). The United Nations estimated Nigeria’s population to be around 150,003, 400 and further corroborated that Nigeria’s population is the largest in Africa and ranked 7th among the populous countries globally United Nations, (2009).

The population of Nigeria is rising rapidly. A rapid rise in population can be attributed to three main factors which are birth rate, death rate and migration Yesefu, (2002). In the Nigeria population experience, migration has not contributed to rapid population, because most of Nigeria’s technocrats, experts and professionals immigrate to other countries for an improved means of livelihood Odusina, (2013). If a rising population is brought about as a result of increase in birth rate, there will be larger proportion of children and young people in the population. On the other hand, if rapid population is a result of decrease in death rate, the adults and older people will constitute a larger percentage of the total population. Furthermore, if a rising population is due to high net migration, the population will constitute a large proportion of the economically active people, between the ages of 15 and 60 years. According to National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS), (2003), crude birth rate in 1990, 1991 and 2003 stood at 39.0, 44.6 and 42.0. This evidences that Nigeria’s rapid population is primarily as a result of high birth rate.

The population of Nigeria has gathered momentum over time. Population will continually increase event if there is usage and practice of contraceptives, family planning system and birth control. Increasing population is a burden to the government especially in less developed countries, which is considered injurious to the citizenry living standard and the socioeconomic development of the country...

1.2  Statement of Problem

Nigeria is bedeviled with a dual-problem of high population and high unemployment. The jobs available in the labour market are not commensurate with the teeming number of unemployed persons. Rapid population growth is inimical to the economic and social development of a country. There will be little time or no time to adjust the economy to development efforts. Increasing population has the tendency of eroding the benefits of economic development and producing disastrous effects on living conditions of the citizenry if not properly checked.

Nigeria population requires urgent attention, regulation and control due to its excessive growth rate...

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The objectives of the study are to:

1.  examine the impact of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria.

2.  ascertain if there is long-run equilibrium relationship between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria.

 3.  identify macro-economic factors that influence population growth on unemployment in Nigeria

 1.4   Hypothesis of the Study

A hypothesis is a supposed or proposed statement made on the premise of limited evidence, which serves as a starting point for further investigation. In accordance with the objectives of the study, the hypotheses are hereby stated as follows

1.  H01: Population growth has no significant impact on unemployment in Nigeria.

2.  H02:  There is no significant long-run equilibrium relationship between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria.

1.5     Significance of the Study

It is no gainsaying to assert that the Nigerian economy is in a state of mess. Despite the enormous mineral, natural and human resources available in the country, Nigeria has been unable to mobilize these resources to meet the needs of its teeming population. High population growth that ought to be an ‘asset’ to the nation in her quest for economic development, has rather turned to a liability, because no strategic and sound  measures has been put in place to ensure high population growth is proportional to the jobs available. To this end, as a result of salvaging the economy from the mirage of high incidences of population growth and unemployment has necessitated the need for this study...

1.6   Scope of the Study

The study examines the impact of population growth and unemployment in Nigeria from 1990-2017. This time frame is picked in order to examine the recent trend in unemployment growth and population growth in Nigeria.

1.7   Organisation of the Study

This study is sectionalized into five chapters.

Chapter one contains the general introduction-background to the study, statement of problem, research objectives, questions and hypothesis that guides the study.

Chapter two presents the review of related literature based on conceptual review, theoretical review and empirical review.

Chapter three presents the theoretical framework.

Chapter four presents the research methodology and empirical analysis and the last

Chapter five focuses on the summary of findings, conclusion, policy recommendations and reference.

                                           CHAPTER TWO

                                         LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1   Introduction-     -       -       --     -       -               - 11

2.2   Conceptual Issues.-   -       -       -       -       -        11

2.3   Theoretical Literature-               -       -       -       - 15

2.4   Empirical Literature   -       -       -       -       -        22

                                           CHAPTER THREE

3.1   Introduction -    -       -       -       -       -       -       27

3.2   Theoretical framework-      -       -       -       -       27

3.3   Sources of data-         -       -       -       -       -       30

3.4   Method of data analysis-   -       -       -       -        30

3.5    Model specification-  -       -       -       -       -       31

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

4.1   Data presentation-     -       -       -       -       -       33

4.2   Data analysis-    -       -       -       -       -       -       35

4.3   Interpretation of Regression Results- -       -        37

                                              CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1   Summary of Findings-               -       -       -        46

5.2   Conclusion-       -       -       -       -       -       -       47

5.3   Recommendations-    -       -       -       -       -       48

      References -          -       -       -       -       -       -    50

Appendix   -       -       -       -       -       -       -       53

 
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